Today I stop to reflect on the conditions of probability with which a trader has to battle every day. I will try to answer why the traded strategies or patterns do not always lead to success and other times they lead to excellent entries (or exits).

## Trading & Success probability concept

It has been shown that by consecutive flipping a coin a large number of times, the probability of getting Heads or Tails on the next roll is around 50%.

If we decide to evaluate Heads out after 4 consecutive crosses, most likely the probability of getting Head will be 50% higher even after a large number of times.
If we decide to evaluate Heads after 5 Tails the probability increases … and increases after the number of consecutive trades increasing … 6,7 or 10 Tails released in succession.
In online trading, every random entry has an initial 50% chance of success.

• ## Trading indicators and strategies

The application of trading signals generated by strategies or indicators therefore has, after numerous inputs, the probability of success at 50%. Ichimoku, HeikenAshii, Supertrend, RSI and anything else does not allow to increase the probability of success especially if the inputs are not filtered with some particular rule.

The pure and consecutive crossing of 2 moving averages will not generate profits, this is a fact.

Like Michael Jordan said “i never lost a game, i just ran out of time”.

The trading signals generated by some system or indicator (for example crossing of 2 moving averages) can create a probability of success greater than 50% if we choose to filter the inputs. In this case I am not talking about a technical filter but a mindset, an approach to trading and prices.

The basic concept for making money is to buy when the price is profitable and sell when it is overestimated.

### Every trade is very difficult to prepare

• It takes time to develop an edge.
• it takes time to master entries.
• it takes time to master exits.
• it takes time to find the strategy that matches your personality.
• And most importantly, it takes time to master your cunty emotions.

## Golden rules that I learned from my experience as a trader

When you want to enter a position it is therefore always good to evaluate the following points:

• Buy low (lower than our studied price) or sell short at the highest possible price
• If the price is not executed then we have lost an opportunity but not money
• Studying short-term volatility with Bollinger Bands and Pivot Point
• Study the intraday and daily swing points

## Charts signals on Cocoa, GOLD, EURUSD and Coffe

In the following examples we have applied the concept expressed previously in which a trader’s mindset is required only on certain price levels. In the examples there are some notes I shared in the free trading room https://t.me/spreadtrading24

and for the inputs I helped myself with our indicators on Kumo Breakout, Supply & Demand and with the intraday swings on pivot.